Semi-random ramblings from the ethereal edge of...ahh forget it.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Yes he did: only an Obama collapse can save Hillary now

The party's over for Hillary, but she'll still be there in the morning.
After Barack Obama's easy victory in North Carolina Tuesday, Clinton's razor-slim victory in Indiana was effectively rendered inconsequential.
Unless he's seen casing a federal building with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers in the next few weeks, Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic presidential candidate this fall against John McCain.
All that being said, Hillary will not get out of the race until the last possible second. She will wait on one big Obama screw-up and, if indeed that unlikely scenario occurs, from there attempt to convince the Democractic superdelegates that she is their best choice against McCain.
And for an even more antagonistic view of Hillary's loitering, think for a minute how exactly she can get back the $11,400,000 she sunk into her campaign?
And so, she is here to stay.

Who will be Obama Veep?

I cannot envision a scenario in which Obama would bring Hillary (and by extension, Bill) into the White House--if, indeed, he wins--as Vice President. It has been an ugly, not to mention prolonged, race for the nomination and I just cannot imagine the two coexisting. Clinton/Obama could have worked; Obama/Clinton is just not in the cards.
Furthermore, Clinton would not have any more claim to power as VP when compared to her high profile junior senator from New York role in Washington. Clinton will just have to hope McCain defeats Obama in November, so she can make a run in 2012. After that, it will probably be too late.
In the end, I think Obama will choose Kathleen Sebelius, the governor of Kansas.

Handicapping the final two

John McCain

Strengths: War hero...reputation as straight talker...bipartisan record in the senate...crossover appeal could be reminiscent of Reagan Dems...strong on defense...high favorability ratings...gets kid-glove treatment from mass media...more qualified than any presidential candidate since Robert Dole.

Weaknesses: Not popular with the base of the Republican Party...would be oldest president in American History...represents state (AZ) that is already in the bag for the GOP...unapologetic Bush supporter..."stay the course in Iraq" mindset becoming less popular...wears the "inside the Beltway" tag...will appear practically impotent when compared to Obama.

Barack Obama

Strengths: Young and vibrant...most inspirational presidential candidate since JFK...his message is roundly positive...could be first African-American President of the United States...dos not have to defend a long record in the Senate...thoroughgoing critic of war in Iraq...advocate of sustainable foreign policy...he's not old and white.

Weaknesses: Relationships with William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright will haunt him...short list of accomplishments in Senate...many Americans are still covertly predjudiced in their views of blacks and will not vote for him regardless...seems less inclined than most presidential candidates to dive into the mud...a sizeable number of Clinton primary voters appear poised to vote for McCain...his state, Illinois, is a Democratic stronghold.

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