'We have to make other arrangements': Kuntsler in Wash Post

James Howard Kunstler has written one of the most prescient accounts of what the global energy crisis actually means: an historic reversal of commodity chains and consumption patterns.
This is the stark reality of runaway energy prices coupled with the popular aversion toward modifying the so-called "American way."
Don't think for a moment that a few tweaks here and there to our way of life is going to change a crisis on a global scale.
This is not a crisis we can isolate.
Read this editorial and maybe even check out the book:

Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster.

By James Howard Kunstler
Sunday, May 25, 2008; B03

Everywhere I go these days, talking about the global energy predicament on the college lecture circuit or at environmental conferences, I hear an increasingly shrill cry for "solutions." This is just another symptom of the delusional thinking that now grips the nation, especially among the educated and well-intentioned.

I say this because I detect in this strident plea the desperate wish to keep our "Happy Motoring" utopia running by means other than oil and its byproducts. But the truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used French-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future. We have to make other arrangements.

The public, and especially the mainstream media, misunderstands the "peak oil" story. It's not about running out of oil. It's about the instabilities that will shake the complex systems of daily life as soon as the global demand for oil exceeds the global supply. These systems can be listed concisely:

The way we produce food

The way we conduct commerce and trade

The way we travel

The way we occupy the land

The way we acquire and spend capital

And there are others: governance, health care, education and more.

As the world passes the all-time oil production high and watches as the price of a barrel of oil busts another record, as it did last week, these systems will run into trouble. Instability in one sector will bleed into another. Shocks to the oil markets will hurt trucking, which will slow commerce and food distribution, manufacturing and the tourist industry in a chain of cascading effects. Problems in finance will squeeze any enterprise that requires capital, including oil exploration and production, as well as government spending. These systems are all interrelated. They all face a crisis. What's more, the stress induced by the failure of these systems will only increase the wishful thinking across our nation.

And that's the worst part of our quandary: the American public's narrow focus on keeping all our cars running at any cost. Even the environmental community is hung up on this. The Rocky Mountain Institute has been pushing for the development of a "Hypercar" for years -- inadvertently promoting the idea that we really don't need to change.

Years ago, U.S. negotiators at a U.N. environmental conference told their interlocutors that the American lifestyle is "not up for negotiation." This stance is, unfortunately, related to two pernicious beliefs that have become common in the United States in recent decades. The first is the idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true. (Oprah Winfrey advanced this notion last year with her promotion of a pop book called "The Secret," which said, in effect, that if you wish hard enough for something, it will come to you.) One of the basic differences between a child and an adult is the ability to know the difference between wishing for things and actually making them happen through earnest effort.

The companion belief to "wishing upon a star" is the idea that one can get something for nothing. This derives from America's new favorite religion: not evangelical Christianity but the worship of unearned riches. (The holy shrine to this tragic belief is Las Vegas.) When you combine these two beliefs, the result is the notion that when you wish upon a star, you'll get something for nothing. This is what underlies our current fantasy, as well as our inability to respond intelligently to the energy crisis.

These beliefs also explain why the presidential campaign is devoid of meaningful discussion about our energy predicament and its implications. The idea that we can become "energy independent" and maintain our current lifestyle is absurd. So is the gas-tax holiday. (Which politician wants to tell voters on Labor Day that the holiday is over?) The pie-in-the-sky plan to turn grain into fuel came to grief, too, when we saw its disruptive effect on global grain prices and the food shortages around the world, even in the United States. In recent weeks, the rice and cooking-oil shelves in my upstate New York supermarket have been stripped clean.

So what are intelligent responses to our predicament? First, we'll have to dramatically reorganize the everyday activities of American life. We'll have to grow our food closer to home, in a manner that will require more human attention. In fact, agriculture needs to return to the center of economic life. We'll have to restore local economic networks -- the very networks that the big-box stores systematically destroyed -- made of fine-grained layers of wholesalers, middlemen and retailers.

We'll also have to occupy the landscape differently, in traditional towns, villages and small cities. Our giant metroplexes are not going to make it, and the successful places will be ones that encourage local farming.

Fixing the U.S. passenger railroad system is probably the one project we could undertake right away that would have the greatest impact on the country's oil consumption. The fact that we're not talking about it -- especially in the presidential campaign -- shows how confused we are. The airline industry is disintegrating under the enormous pressure of fuel costs. Airlines cannot fire any more employees and have already offloaded their pension obligations and outsourced their repairs. At least five small airlines have filed for bankruptcy protection in the past two months. If we don't get the passenger trains running again, Americans will be going nowhere five years from now.

We don't have time to be crybabies about this. The talk on the presidential campaign trail about "hope" has its purpose. We cannot afford to remain befuddled and demoralized. But we must understand that hope is not something applied externally. Real hope resides within us. We generate it -- by proving that we are competent, earnest individuals who can discern between wishing and doing, who don't figure on getting something for nothing and who can be honest about the way the universe really works.

James Howard Kunstler is the author, most recently, of "World Made by Hand," a novel about America's post-oil future.

In Memoriam: Losing sight of the day, remembering the victims

It's a little more difficult in America these days to get caught up in "glory, glory, Hallelujah" wartime fanfare; there's so little of it left. Many Americans, one might say most, are somewhat weary of war and all that accompanies it.
Call it war fatigue.
This could explain our newfound relative lack of fervor surrounding national holidays like Memorial Day.
But upon further review, I think there is more to it.
To America's younger generations, "foreign" not only describes war's theater but its character as well.
The vast majority of Americans under 40, and I fall into this category, don't really understand wartime sacrifice like my Grandparents' generation.
Over the years I have taken note, on numerous occasions, of a simple little phrase used by older folks to describe World War II: "I lived through World War II," I've heard them say.
What does that mean to someone like me? In 40 years will I talk about "living through" two wars against Iraq?
Of course not.
Our wars against Iraq are foreign wars, to be sure, but so was World War II--a world-historic war that was fought primarily in Western Europe and the Far East.
The difference, of course, is reflected in the level of individual sacrifice commanded of those of us who stay "in the rear with the gear" as the old military saying goes.
The generation dubbed as "greatest" by Tom Brokaw (the WWII generation) deserves just such a moniker because of the sacrfice of its people, fighting men and women alongside citizen soldiers.
My generation is every bit as enlightened as it is insulated; we gather around grills instead of graves on this day.
Memorial Day just isn't what it used to be. Only a few short decades ago this day was one to remember the sacrifices of American military men and women who fought in wars both foreign and domestic.
It was strictly a day for remembrance and celebration.
All that has changed, of course; these days many Americans couldn't tell you the difference either in time or in significance of Labor Day as opposed to Memorial Day.
I'm not much different, of course, as a product of my environment. I've never celebrated Memorial Day in any substantial way.
And I have also never been called upon to sacrifice for my country, nor have I volunteered.
The casualty, then, is the devotion bred from sacrifice.


Remember the victims
We are certainly not alone in our willingness to celebrate victories with blind eyes toward the costs of winning them. And while it might not fit some people's narrow-minded definition of what it means to be patriotic, I think it's imporant to remember the innocent lives lost in what Robert McNamara has taken to calling "the fog of war."
Think for a moment that during World War II 100,000 people were burned to death in one night during the firebombing of Japan's major cities. This is in addition to the more than 210,000 people who were vaporized in the first and only two nuclear strikes (Hiroshima and Nagaski, Japan) in world history. Common Japanese citizens made the ultimate sacrifice and had no choice in the matter.
Remember them.
Curtis Lemay, the Air Force General who commanded troops in the Pacific Theater during World War II, admitted after the war that if the United States had lost he (among others) would have been tried as war criminals.
Remember that.
I recently watched a moving documentary that told the stories of numerous survivors of the atomic bombings in Japan entitled, "White Light, Black Rain."
I listened to firsthand accounts of living through a nuclear strike alongside admissions of young people living in Hiroshima that they didn't even know what happened on August 6, 1945, in their city.

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." --George Santayana

War by the numbers

Take some time to read through these listings of 20th century wartime death tolls sorted by conflict:

Farm bill ensures lots of green

America takes care of its farmers.
Just in my lifetime American farmers have been paid to produce more and, at times, to produce nothing at all.
It is a truism that supercedes reality.
Two summers ago there was a report in the Washington Post about farm subsidies being doled out to non-farmers--people who live on land formerly used for farming.
It went on to explain that even landowners who did farm did not have to grow the crop the subsidy was intended for, or any crop at all.
It seems that farm subsidies are quite a windfall for some.

The payments now account for nearly half of the nation's expanding agricultural subsidy system, a complex web that has little basis in fairness or efficiency. What began in the 1930s as a limited safety net for working farmers has swollen into a far-flung infrastructure of entitlements that has cost $172 billion over the past decade. In 2005 alone, when pretax farm profits were at a near-record $72 billion, the federal government handed out more than $25 billion in aid, almost 50 percent more than the amount it pays to families receiving welfare.
--Washington Post (July 2, 2006)

And now we have the controverial $307 billion farm bill which, at least on the surface, subsidizes farmers on both ends of the wealth spectrum.
And to answer the question, "who counts as rich?", I offer this: pretty much no one.
Here's an excerpt from the report in today's Christian Science Monitor:

Washington - At the heart of the standoff between the White House and Congress over a $307 billion farm bill is the question: Should taxpayers subsidize rich farmers – and who counts as rich?

What income levels qualify – or disqualify – Americans from federal aid programs has figured in several clashes between the Bush administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress.

The farm bill on the way to the president's desk this week limits eligibility for farm subsidies to individuals with an adjusted gross farm income of less than $750,000; $1.5 million for couples. That's down from the $2.5 million for couples under current law, but President Bush wants the eligibility cap for farm subsidies to be much lower: $200,000.

"At a time of record farm income, Congress chose to .... require the American taxpayers to subsidize the incomes of married farmers already earning up to $1.5 million per year and expand government control over farm programs," said the White House in a statement Thursday.

The farm bill passed both the House and Senate last week with veto-proof majorities, 81 to 15 in the Senate and 318 to 106 in the House. The bill cuts traditional crop insurance programs by $3.8 billion and authorizes a $10.3 billion increase in nutrition programs.

This bill was vetoed by President Bush today, but you can rest assured that it will be overturned.

First TOKM, now Barack...

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama address a mob scene in Portland, Oregon this weekend with these words quoted in the New York Daily News:

"We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK. That's not leadership. That's not going to happen."

His words dovetail the spirit of my last entry. Americans no longer have the luxury of living in a superglobal bubble, where actions aren't accompanied by reactions. Obama will get hammered from the Right for this statement, which smacks of guardian class elitism. Even so, Obama is right on the money.
This is a different world; we are directly connected as human beings in almost every conceivable way. Things no long happen in a vacuum.

America: Take a look at yourself

It was with a great deal of glee that I read an article that made known the disdain many Indians have for being blamed for rising food prices.
In the International Herald Tribune, Heather Timmons writes about the popular chagrin that exists in India after the Bush Administration hoisted blame for the rise in the price of food in the United States.
It is the same old story, of course. The United States blames China and India for the precipitious rise in oil prices while saying nothing about our level of consumption--which, of course, dwarfs the consumption of any other country.
Now these newly industrialized economies are at fault for the higher cost of bread at Meijer.

Here is the gist of the article:

NEW DELHI: Instead of blaming India and other developing nations for the rise in food prices, Americans should rethink their energy policy and go on a diet, say a growing number of politicians, economists and academics here.
Criticism of the United States has ballooned in India recently, particularly after the Bush administration seemed to blame India's increasing middle class and prosperity for rising food prices. Critics from India seem to be asking one underlying question: "Why do Americans think they deserve to eat more than Indians?"
The food problem has "clearly" been created by Americans, who are eating 50 percent more calories than the average person in India, said Pradeep Mehta, the secretary general of CUTS Center for International Trade, Economics and Environment, a private economic research organization based in India with offices in Kenya, Zambia, Vietnam and Britain.
If Americans were to slim down to even the middle-class weight in India, "many hungry people in sub-Saharan Africa would find food on their plates," Mehta said. The money Americans spend on liposuction to get rid of their excess fat could be funneled to famine victims instead, he added.

We Americans eat more, drink more, drive more, spend more, pollute more and blame more.
Now India is poking back at the United States with what amounts to a great line from an Eric Clapton song: before you accuse me, take a look at yourself.

Dennys' reputation for funky fare largely deserved

***This is the first in a bi-weekly series of restaurant reviews exclusive to TOKM***

For my first salvo into the rarefied air of restaurant reviews, I set my sights square on Saginaw Highway and Interstate 69 in Lansing--destination: Denny's.
This always-open full-service family diner chain has a reputation for somewhat less than fine dining and, as it turns out, it's a reputation that is largely deserved.
But, at the end of the day, where else can you go to soak up some Saturday night sobriety? (The preceding sentence neither promotes weekend drunkness nor Denny's as an antidote to it.)

Step up to the plate

After waiting 20 minutes to get so much as a look from the waitstaff, I made my intentions known: it was to be a Grand Slam with scrambled eggs, bacon, two pancakes and hash browns. The Grand Slam is the Burger King equivalent of the Whopper combo

The verdict

The eggs ran; the bacon tasted like peanut brittle minus the peanut taste normally associated with the best-known variety of brittle--in fairness they may have actually been "beggin' strips"; the center portions of my pancakes had the consistency of paper mache; the hash browns weren't bad, though I believe "fried potatoes" is the preferred nomenclature.
In fairness, however, it didn't take my Grand Slam long to round the bases. It was out of the kitchen and on my table in less than 10 minutes.

You have options, exercise them

I must tip my hat to Denny's for only closing its doors when it is mandated by law. It is, however, confounding to me that many are unaware of the fact that there are so many other options. Hitting up Denny's at four o'clock in the morning to take the edge off hunger pains of the early morning is one thing, but why go during regular business hours? You have options; exercise them.

Of course they do have WI-FI

More and more Denny's locations are getting wired for the internet, which does give the chain a bit of a boost. That being said, WI-FI is a little sketchy at their flagship Capital-area location. You cannot just login here; you have to get a network key from your waiter, a wireless code he or she will write down for you on the back of an old receipt. Once you get connected, search Google for the nearest IHOP location and get back behind the wheel.

Connect the dots

Since March of 2006, there have been no fewer than four shootings at Denny's locations in the United States. To borrow a phrase from the great Chris Rock, "I'm not saying it's right...but I understand."

Gas prices from around the world

Ok, I'll admit it: I was always that annoying guy who stood at the ready to pounce on anyone who moaned about the high price of gas in the United States--even when it was in the $1 to $2 range. It did seem high at the time, especially considering that in 2000 I purchased gas in northwest Indiana for just less than 70 cents.
"Go check the price of gas in Canada," I would say to the chagrined. "And when you're done, go look up Europe."
And now I have the proof in writing.
In America it's bad, but it could be a lot worse.
If you have the stomach for it, take a look at these gas prices across the globe measured in US dollars:

Gas prices from around the world (USA Today)

Gas prices on April 17 or 18. Data for EU countries were provided by the AA Motoring Trust.

United Kingdom $8.37

Netherlands $7.52

Norway $7.33

Belgium $6.95

Denmark $6.95

Germany $6.72

Portugal $6.65

Finland $6.57

France $6.50

Sweden $6.50

Hungary $5.63

Poland $5.63

Slovakia $5.59

Austria $5.40

Ireland $5.40

Slovenia $5.36

Switzerland $5.17

Spain $5.14

Czech Republic $5.10

Greece $4.91

Italy $4.80

Lithuania $4.72

Latvia $4.61

Estonia $4.30

Luxembourg $4.27

Japan $4.16

United States $2.88

Kazakhstan $2.75

Russia $2.68

Mexico $2.38

China $2.19

Nigeria $1.92

Saudi Arabia $0.45

Venezuela $0.19

The variables in play here that affect the disparate prices are as follows: Gas prices in welfare states, such as those in Western Europe (The Netherlands for example), are always going to be high because of runaway taxation on commodities like gasoline.
Countries in Latin America who trade with Venezuela (like Cuba, for instance) tend to pay less for gas. Venezuela sits on what some experts believe are the second largest oil reserves in the world and that is reflected in their unbelievably low price for a gallon of gas--that, coupled with the fact that Hugo Chavez's government nationalized the oil industry in Venezuela and can essentially set the price.
The OPEC countries of the Middle East (Venezuela also in OPEC) tend to pay very little for gas for many reasons, not the least of which being their proximity to the supply.